THE AFRICAN COURIER. Reporting Africa and its Diaspora! The African Courier is an international magazine published in Germany to report on Africa and the Diaspora African experience. The first issue of the bimonthly magazine appeared on the newsstands on 15 February 1998. The African Courier is a communication forum for European-African political, economic and cultural exchanges, and a voice for Africa in Europe.
The German federal election has triggered significant political shifts, with potential implications for migration policies in Germany and across Europe. Approximately 60 million Germans were eligible to vote for a new Bundestag, and with voter turnout surpassing 82% on Sunday, participation reached its highest level in decades, underscoring the nation’s heightened political engagement.
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The centre-right CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz, emerged as the strongest force with 28.5% of the Bundestag vote, reaffirming the conservatives’ dominance but falling short of an outright majority. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved its best result to date with 20.8%, making it the second-largest party in the Bundestag and solidifying its influence, particularly in eastern Germany.
The centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered a historic defeat, securing only 16.4% — its worst result in post-war history. The Greens received 11.6%, a notable decline from their previous performance. The Left Party saw a modest resurgence, increasing its share to 8.8%, while both the Free Democrats (FDP) and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) narrowly missed the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation.
Friedrich Merz, chancellor candidate of the CDU/CSU, has expressed his intention to form a coalition government by Easter, with the most likely scenario being a “grand coalition” with the SPD. However, analysts caution that significant ideological differences could complicate negotiations.
Uwe Jun, a political scientist, noted in an interview with Deutschlandfunk that the ideological gaps between the Union (CDU/CSU) and the SPD have widened significantly.
“The CDU under Merz has shifted towards a more traditionally conservative and economically liberal stance, while the SPD has reasserted its social democratic roots. This makes finding common ground much harder than in previous coalition negotiations,” Jun explained.
Coalition Talks: Key Sticking Points
1. Migration Policy: One of the most contentious issues is migration. The Union has proposed stricter measures, including turning away asylum seekers at Germany’s borders and suspending family reunification for those granted subsidiary protection. The SPD, however, argues that such measures violate European law and has vowed to maintain the current monthly quota of 1,000 visas for family reunification. The Union’s push to abolish subsidiary protection at the EU level is also likely to face resistance from the SPD.
2. Economic and Tax Policy: While both parties agree on the need to stimulate the economy, their approaches differ sharply. The Union advocates for broad tax cuts, including for businesses, while the SPD proposes a “Made in Germany” bonus, offering companies a 10% subsidy on investments in machinery or vehicles.
3. Budget: The SPD is pushing for a reform of Germany’s constitutional debt brake to free up funds for infrastructure and social programs. Merz has not ruled out such reforms but remains cautious.
4. Social Policy: The Union’s plan to replace the Bürgergeld (citizen’s income) with a new “basic security” system is another flashpoint. The SPD has also called for raising the minimum wage to €15 per hour, a move the Union opposes, arguing that wage decisions should remain the purview of employers and unions.
5. Transport Policy: The future of Germany’s popular €49 monthly public transport ticket remains uncertain, with funding guaranteed only until the end of 2025. The Union’s proposal to restructure Deutsche Bahn by separating its operations and infrastructure is also likely to face resistance from the SPD.
Observers therefore say these significant policy differences between the conservative Union and the Social Democrats, particularly on migration, could pose challenges during coalition negotiations.
SPD General Secretary Matthias Miersch has also acknowledged the challenges ahead, stating that there is “no automatic path” to a coalition. However, he emphasized the need for cooperation among democratic forces in these turbulent times.
Test for Germany’s Political Future
The decisions made in the coming months will not only shape the country’s domestic policies but also influence its role in European governance. The stakes are particularly high for migrant communities, whose legal and social standing could be significantly impacted by the policies of the next government. Whether Germany takes a more restrictive or inclusive approach to migration and social welfare will be a defining issue for years to come.
Felix Dappah
