Germany has seen a sharp decline in net migration in 2024, according to preliminary estimates from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The number of people arriving in the country exceeded those leaving by approximately 400,000 to 440,000—marking a 34% drop compared to 2023. This decrease signals a return to pre-2022 migration levels, following a peak driven by the large-scale arrival of refugees from Ukraine.
In 2023, around 1.93 million individuals moved to Germany, while approximately 1.27 million left, resulting in a net migration figure of 662,964. This represents a 55% decline from 2022, when Germany experienced record-high immigration. The drop is largely attributed to a significant reduction in the number of Ukrainian refugees, which fell by 75% from the previous year.
Despite the overall decline, migration trends among different nationalities have varied. While immigration from Romania and Bulgaria decreased, the number of people arriving from Turkey saw a notable increase. Overall, European nations continue to account for the majority of immigrants to Germany.
Demographic shifts remain a key concern for Germany, as the country faces an aging population and declining birth rates. In 2023, the number of births dropped to 693,000, the lowest since 2013. Projections indicate that by 2024, the elderly population (aged 65 and above) will increase by 13%. Given these trends, migration plays a critical role in maintaining the country’s workforce and economic stability.
To address labour shortages and improve integration, Germany has introduced new laws to attract skilled workers from non-EU countries as well as easing the path to citizenship for long-term residents. This policy change reflects ongoing efforts to make the country more attractive to skilled workers and better incorporate immigrants into society.
At the same time, migration remains a contentious political issue. The far-right AfD has built its popularity on advocating a hardline on migration. The main opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has also called for stricter controls, with its leader Friedrich Merz proposing tighter asylum policies. As Germany prepares for upcoming elections, the debate over migration policy is expected to remain a focal point in public discourse.
While migration levels have returned to historical norms, the role of newcomers in sustaining Germany’s economy and social structure remains vital. The country’s approach to immigration in the coming years will shape its workforce, demographics and political landscape.
Femi Awoniyi