How President Mahama can navigate Ghana’s economic challenges

Collins Nweke, a Nigerian-born scholar, political analyst and Pan-Africanist based in Belgium, assesses the current situation in Ghana and the economic challenges the country is facing. He outlines his recommendations for how newly-elected president of the country, John Dramani Mahama, who is set to be sworn into office on 7 January, could address these challenges.

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Next week the good people of Ghana will usher in  the return of John, not The Baptist, but Dramani Mahama, to the presidential villa. While this is understandably good news for his supporters, those that lined up behind incumbent Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, his opponent, are left to nurse their wounds. But did this come entirely as a surprise to them? It probably didn’t and I will tell you why in a moment.

It certainly didn’t matter to objective watchers like me with no horse in this race except a desire to see the consolidation of democracy in a prominent West African nation. This is at a time when things are falling apart in the region and dominant regional players like Nigeria are struggling to hold the centre together.

Call it the day after. We can then begin to ask how this victory came about given that the same issues that led Ghanaians to sack Mahama in 2016 are the same for renewing their faith in him eight years later. So where was Ghana then economically and politically? Where are they now; what has changed?

Economic challenges attending election

Let us begin with the present. As of election day in 2024 (7 December), Ghana’s consumer inflation rose to 23.0% year-on-year, up from 22.1% in October. It’s the third consecutive monthly increase, primarily driven by higher food prices, especially vegetables, yam, cassava and plantains.

However, the second quarter of 2024 saw Ghana’s economy grow by 6.9% year-on-year, the fastest rate since the Nana Akufo-Addo presidency. This growth was propelled by strong performances in the mining and quarrying sectors, with the gold sector expanding by 23.6%. The country equally restructured $13 billion in US dollar bonds, effectively exiting a nearly two-year debt default. This restructuring reduced the nation’s debt by over $4 billion. This brings with it the prospect of positioning Ghana for a return to global capital markets.

While the nation’s debt was reduced, it could safely be said that the elections were held amid significant economic challenges.

How Mahama rode on the back economic challenges to victory

The high inflation linked to debt defaults were skilfully made electioneering issues. This leads one to ask if Ghanaians are quick to forget that in 2015, Mahama’s government equally sought a $918 million bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stabilize the economy and address high debt levels.

Ghanaians may not be quick to forget. It might simply be that Mahama was a better political communicator with better packaged messaging than Bawumia and his New Patriotic Party. He may have been better at bringing on issues that influenced voter sentiment at a time when many are seeking change due to rising living costs.

Mahama dipped into his accomplishments as President from 2012 to 2017. He successfully emphasized his infrastructure development that focused on roads, schools, hospitals and energy projects. He reminded voters of initiatives like the Atuabo Gas Processing Plant and expansion of ports and airports which modernised Ghana’s economy.

Tried as he could, Bawumia was unable to successfully shine the light on the energy crisis that enveloped Ghana under Mahama’s watch. Ghana faced a severe power crisis, the so-called Dumsor with frequent outages crippling businesses and causing pains to households.

On his part Mahama got the focus to rest on the efforts his administration invested in to achieve energy mix. This includes thermal and renewable energy plants, to address the power crisis. His campaign was good at deploying contrast communication strategy. For instance, while admitting that the economy was hard hit with declining prices of gold, cocoa and oil, his team was quick to point to the fact that the fault lay with decline in global commodity prices and had nothing to do with government policy or lack of it. To rub it in, they then end the messaging with a pointer to the early years of his administration when oil production boosted GDP.

Mahama drew attention to how he oversaw a relatively peaceful political environment and upheld Ghana’s democratic tradition. Despite mostly unfair criticisms, he told voters that he ensured free and fair elections in 2016, where he conceded defeat to Nana Akufo-Addo, solidifying Ghana’s reputation for political stability.

He could not be blamed for exercising his bragging rights around investments in education including the Community Day Senior High School project, which improved access to secondary education; expansion of the National Health Insurance Scheme; and increased access to healthcare facilities.

While he can’t match the records of incumbent President in shuttle diplomacy, Mahama did not shy away from highlighting his key role in regional diplomacy, including efforts to mediate political crises in neighbouring countries like Burkina Faso.

As the dust settles, the Bawumia team will be assessing their communication failure in not leveraging on some of the major scandals that docked Mahama. How on earth were they unable to convince voters that they can’t trust a guy involved in a contract to brand public buses with photos of Ghanaian presidents with a whopping $3.6 million. What about the GYEEDA Affair? The Ghana Youth Employment and Entrepreneurial Development Agency (GYEEDA) was implicated in the misappropriation of funds meant for youth employment programs. Yet the youths of Ghana were allowed by Bawumia to thrust their fate in the man’s hands!

Again? How on earth did the Bawumia campaign miss the opportunity to paint all of the country black with the ghost of the SADA Controversy? The Savannah Accelerated Development Authority (SADA), established to develop Ghana’s northern regions, faced allegations of mismanagement and corruption involving millions of cedis. And then comes the Ford Expedition Gift Imbroglio! Mahama was accused of accepting a Ford Expedition vehicle from a Burkinabe contractor who had won lucrative government contracts, raising concerns about conflict of interest and ethical breaches.

From all indications, it appears the people of Ghana are fine to forgive economic mismanagement and persistent allegations of corruption preferring instead to settle for a legacy of focus on infrastructure development and commitment to democracy. His manifesto, Mahama’s First 120 Days Social Contract with the People of Ghana, was a fine read. The next four years will prove whether the people’s gamble with Mahama will pay off.

What Mahama should look out for in his cabinet choice

For the renewed presidency of John Dramani Mahama, which by the way, reminds us of the return of Donald Trump of the United States, the challenges facing him are humongous. But he has the parliamentary majority needed to push through his agenda. His legacy will be anchored on a number of policy areas of which analysts are now on the look out to assess his soon to be appointed cabinet. His appointments will give a window to his success or failure in areas crucial in addressing Ghana’s current challenges while building on lessons from his previous tenure.

On debt management, who will be his point person in building on Ghana’s recent debt restructuring success by adopting prudent fiscal policies to prevent further accumulation of unsustainable debt? Mahama needs to improve revenue collection through tax reforms and combating tax evasion. Are there lessons that he’d pick from the tax reforms components of Tinubunomics of Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu? In controlling inflation, Africa will be on the lookout for Mahama to deliver a template on successful measures to address rising inflation, particularly in food prices, by supporting local production and reducing dependency on imports.

If his Minister for Employment has no track records of expertise in youth employment through aggressive skills development programmes and projects and incentivizing private sector growth, particularly in industries like technology and manufacturing, he has beautifully set himself up to fail. Of course, Mahama must do everything he can to rid himself of the ghosts of GYEEDA by not bringing close to him, anybody that resembles the crooks that misappropriated funds meant to give young people career prospects a decade ago

If you are no proponent of Economic Diversification, Mahama should not have you on the shortlist for consideration either as trade or economic portfolio. Ghana should have reduced yesterday its undue reliance on commodities like gold, cocoa and oil. But if by tomorrow, Mahama pays more attention to investing in agriculture, renewable energy and digital technology, Ghana will not easily forget his second coming.

It is expected that the President-elect will defend his credentials on infrastructure through his policy around sustainable energy solutions. Under him Ghana must expand its renewable energy capacity, through solar and wind to reduce dependency on fossil fuels and prevent future power crises and by so doing wave a final goodbye to the ghosts of Dumsor. While on it, he must strengthen public-private partnerships for energy infrastructure investments. In choosing his international partners for energy, he must keep away from Western leaders who’d preach to him the gospel according to jettisoning oil to embrace exclusively clean energy despite oil still supporting a significant chunk of the economy of Ghana. Among the friends he made while serving as a member of European and Pan African Parliaments’ Ad hoc Committee on Cooperation, he must know who to run away from and who to embrace as international partners willing and able to respect Ghana’s sovereignty and facilitate the provision of targeted subsidies to ensure affordable electricity for low-income households while promoting efficient energy use.

If his job description for Minister for Transport does not include provable experience and expertise in managing investment in road and rail networks, he must withdraw and edit it. It is the imperative of Ghana’s time in history to enhance connectivity between rural and urban areas, promoting trade and economic activity. He must expand and modernize ports and airports to make Ghana a regional logistics hub. He did it before. He must do it again in his second coming.

A President Mahama must prioritise building on existing healthcare infrastructure by improving access to quality care, particularly in underserved rural areas. He must strengthen public health initiatives to address ongoing issues like malaria and rising non-communicable diseases. Strengthening of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) to ensure universal coverage and address challenges like delays in claims payments should be a priority.

Building on his efforts up to 2016 and whatever accomplishments of his predecessor, President Mahama must accelerate efforts to make senior high school universally accessible and improve technical and vocational training to align with market needs.

The promise of constituting the leanest and most efficient government in the fourth Republic of Ghana is easy to say because lean government is the new trend. So, this President can’t listen to anyone who tells him to create more ministerial portfolios. He however must give consideration to refocusing existing portfolios and perhaps rename or merge some ministries.

What Mahama’s priorities should be

For instance, it might serve Ghana well to have a ministry for institutional reforms and digitisation into which ministries with overlapping portfolios could be collapsed. Such a ministry could be tasked with strengthening anti-corruption institutions like the Office of the Special Prosecutor and the Auditor-General’s office. It must facilitate policies around transparent procurement processes and punish financial mismanagement to rebuild public trust.

His Year One accomplishment must include Public Sector Efficiency. This is as urgent as it is. Ghana should urgently show other African countries how to reduce bureaucratic inefficiencies and streamline service delivery to make government programmes and projects more effective. While at it, it must foster greater civic engagement with the civil society to ensure inclusivity in decision-making and policy implementation.

As of today, Ghana ranks 133 out of 191 countries and maintains the same human development index (HDI) value for 2020 and 2021 with 0.632. This puts the country in the medium human development category, according to UNDP report. Between 1990 and 2021, Ghana’s HDI value grew from 0.460 to 0.632, reflecting an increase of 37.4%.

However, though Ghana falls in the medium human development category, when considered for unequal distribution of human development, the country records a loss of 27.5 per cent in its HDI. For instance, Ghana’s level of gender inequality remains high over the years and ranked 130 out of 170 countries in 2021 in terms of gender inequality between female and male achievements.

President Mahama has every reason to take Social Protection and Welfare seriously. He must make work out of poverty alleviation, expanding social protection programmes to cushion the impact of rising living costs on vulnerable populations. Genuine focus should go to food security by supporting smallholder farmers with subsidies, access to credit and modern farming techniques. Affordable housing in urban centres has remained a challenge. There can’t be a better time than now to partner with private developers to create affordable housing units to address the housing deficit.

Adapting Ghana’s foreign policy to changing dynamics

Not unimportant is how President John Mahama will perform in the international stage with special reference to Regional Leadership and Foreign Policy. The principles enshrined in Ghana’s 1992 Constitution, particularly Article 40, which underscores the promotion and protection of the nation’s interests, respect for international law and adherence to the principles of organisations such as the United Nations and the African Union, have continued to guide the country at the international stage.

Over the years, the foreign policy has evolved to adapt to changing international dynamics. It is the hope that Mahama will remain consistent in the area of economic diplomacy and will leverage Ghana’s strategic position in West Africa to attract foreign direct investment and promote trade through agreements like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Doing this will not preclude him from continuing to play a mediating role in regional conflicts to ensure peace and stability in the sub-region.

Ghanaians’ mandate to Mahama

In conclusion, the 2024 elections that returned John Dramani Mahama as President underscores Ghana’s resolve to give him a shot at navigating the country’s economic recovery while upholding its democratic traditions. That he received as high as 56.55% of the votes indicates the readiness of the people to give him another chance. He can’t take this for granted by assuming that he has completely been forgiven of his sins of old. He needs to rebuild trust among Ghanaians.

As an independent onlooker but one with a vested interest in the Pan-African agenda, I urge Mr President to place accountability and legacy building high on his agenda. It is not enough to state in his contract with the people of Ghana that he’d establish a robust code of conduct and standards for all government officials. The people of Ghana are more interested in his clear mechanisms to address scandals and allegations of corruption from the past to rebuild credibility.

Resting on this, he has no option but to focus on completing unfinished projects from his previous tenure, particularly in infrastructure and energy, to strengthen his governance legacy. By focusing on these recommended imperatives of the time, Mahama can address Ghana’s current challenges while leveraging his experience in rebuilding trust among Ghanaians and Africans.

The author, Collins Nweke is opinion-maker writer with The Brussels Times. A Fellow of both the Chartered Institute of Public Management of Nigeria and the Institute of Management Consultants, he serves on the Governing Board of the International Association of Research Scholars & Administrators, where he is also a Fellow. He features on several Afrocentric media as Global Affairs Analyst. A Green Party Municipal Legislator in the legislature 2006 – 2025, he writes from Brussels, Belgium.

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